Smoothed recession probability

Latest value: 0.54 as of 2026-05-01, 0.0% year over year. 125 monthly observations from 2016-01 to 2026-05. Source: FRED — public data, full history downloadable as JSON on this page. Part of the Nowflation open directory.

DateValue
2026-05-010.54
2026-04-010.26
2026-03-010.32
2026-02-010.16
2026-01-010.18
2025-12-010.12

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